If there’s one question that might shape Nebraska’s entire season, it’s this: does Dylan Raiola make that true sophomore jump from talented freshman to tone-setter? The signs point in the right direction. He arrived with five-star credentials, flashed the arm talent everyone talked about, and—yes—looked like a first-year quarterback at times. That’s normal. Deep-ball touch, timing, and comfort against college disguises are the kinds of things that tend to sharpen fast once you’ve lived a season of real snaps.
There’s also a new variable that deserves just as much attention: Dana Holgorsen. When you step back and look at how quarterbacks have trended in his offenses from year one to year two, the improvement is hard to ignore. Think about the names that have come through his rooms—Case Keenum, Geno Smith, Skyler Howard, Will Grier, Clayton Tune, Donovan Smith. Different styles, different eras, same basic story: more yards, better rhythm, cleaner decision-making in year two. If you sketch a conservative projection off those patterns, you end up in a neighborhood like this for Raiola: flirting with 4,000 passing yards, around 68% completions, north of 20 touchdowns, and interceptions that don’t spike as the volume goes up.
The wild card is that Raiola may well be the most naturally gifted quarterback Holgorsen has coached. That matters. When the baseline talent is that high, the little gains—faster eyes, firmer feet, quicker answers—tend to snowball. It’s why a second-year jump can feel dramatic on the outside even when, inside the building, it’s just the product of another offseason spent stacking reps, watching cut-ups, and getting on the same page with receivers.
Case Keenum is the loudest historical example. He went from 14 touchdown passes as a true freshman to 44 the next season under Holgorsen. That doesn’t mean 44 is the expectation here; it does show what’s possible when a quarterback gets a year older and the system meets him halfway. The bigger takeaway is philosophical: Holgorsen streamlines the picture for his quarterbacks. You get answers built into the play, you live in concepts the QB loves, and you nudge defenses into the throws you want to make.
All of that flows back to the room, not just QB1. A cleaner structure simplifies the job for the backups, too, because the reads and landmarks don’t change with the name on the jersey. That’s how you build a floor for the position while you chase a higher ceiling with your starter: keep the language consistent, the timing precise, and the easy yards automatic. If Raiola takes the step everyone’s watching for, it lifts the whole offense—drives stay on schedule, explosives land more often, and late-game possessions start with confidence instead of hope.
So the question isn’t whether Nebraska has a quarterback worth believing in. It’s whether a gifted second-year passer and a proven quarterback developer can accelerate the timeline together. The track record says yes, the talent says yes, and the early math gives you a realistic blueprint for what that “yes” could look like on Saturdays.
